23 Comments

Sorry you had to write it while sick, but this was one of your best yet

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Consider me a definitive optimist, reading voices like you, Doomberg and others confirms my faith and trust in human intelligence to find the way forward.

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Pneumonia sucks. Antibiotics are amazing. Be well!

Opportunities arrive every day in this world. Most of them are lame. The good ones can change the world. The best ones are often surprises to us. Not remaining open to opportunities and believing that change is impossible because one can only measure and assess (how close that word is to "asses") the past and the present (both imperfectly observed at best) is the heartbeat of pessimism.

The world is a dynamic place, and things change. Realism... change brings both challenge and opportunity. Thiel needs a fifth box for realism. Why are so many graphical representations stuck with four boxes?... easy to draw and label?

Be well! Some of us are having difficulty maintaining a passive patience while waiting for your anticipated epistles plumbing passivity.

Seriously, be well...

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I was an MD and urgent care physician before going back to graduate school and transitioning into finance...your post brings back some memories. Hope you're getting better and better each day!

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The ingenuity and inventiveness of man will always bring “hope” (hope is not a course of action my ex-military husband says) for the future. Change is the only constant. Real leaders will emerge. It won’t be perfect.

Clean water is arguably as/more important than antibiotics in modern health. Both are amazing and didn’t come easily. We are so fortunate to live in amazing times!

Be well! Thanks for your thoughts and this forum.

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Hi Mike! Hope you get better. Just here to say hi~

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Hi Mike,

Listen to your body and get plenty of rest mate.

With equity premiums and vol at all time lows, and with the passive crowd nicely on board the bull trap, markets are like a tightly coiled spring with only one way to release. See 1928 😳. Should be one hell of a ride.

Cheers 🍺

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In a research library thumbing through archived WSJs I read an editorial arguing against the the charlatan theory of antibiotics. The arguments were wrong headed in every way but that was only easily recognized by looking back in time. I have forever had a different perspective on modern WSJ editorials. Good fortune is so important but easy to take for granted. I do not comprehend hit pop songs with no hint of what I think of as a melody, but millions disagree. At times I am only able to keep time by copying the beat of my friends and acquaintances. Prof Plum has reinforced my discomfort with Florida, a humid and swampy glade where house pets are at risk of being snacks.

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In defense of pessimism, while prophets of doom exist in every generation, a leadership class losing track of the distinction between boys and girls is fairly rare.

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I identify as confused as well

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Mike, I too wish you a solid and speedy return to health.

The combination of appetite for more terawatts, ESG ideals and passive vehicles driving markets represent a crazy dissonance of forces IMO...

I certainly understand the hunger for meaning and hope that I sense in my ~20yo colleagues. My own kids are all in the 30s. I tended to follow them into a loss of faith in Western institutions.

And while I might argue about politics and policy with my grandparent-aged school friends, we are in agreement about the 'loss of faith'.

My gut says, the Loss of Faith needs to revert before we start doing 'sensible' policies about our collective future.

Perhaps the Ice Cream Eating politicians have spent nearly 100 years since the labelling of Public Relations using emotional and psychologically inspired messaging to 'lead' us. The tone of those message *could* change and maybe even reverse.

I'm getting a little fuzzy and woo here, but, I think I'm talking about shifts in consciousness.

To be practical, we would follow data, evidence, engineering experience and so on. Sequencing and timing of events and plans would be key.

My best practical gut reaction would be - the Sequence priority points first to our values and mindsets.

I think of Depression era people talking somewhat whimsically about tougher times. And my parents generation pointing to the positivism of the Baby Boom.

The extent to wish Maslovian conditions create a two-way feedback of Mood is hard to fathom.

While not wedded to 4 Turnings, I'm inclined to think I won't see much of the next Great Generation. The youngest of these have just started school, like my Grandson.

I think I'll make my efforts and prayers about this cohort, the post Zoomers or Alpha generation. I'd like to teach them to fish, use hand tools, play musical instruments and repair their bikes...

And repeat the thought Nevertheless. Why do we keep on going when things seem hopeless? Nevertheless...

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Ben, thank you for the comment. I was just chastised by my oldest, about to graduate college, for not teaching him “how to do things like fix a sink.”

“I tried... you had no interest!”

“You can’t listen to a kid, Dad!”

Hoo boy...

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The young will never have faith when boomers sit in houses with pensions and say we can't have them.

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Not sure how the Malthusians can be consistently proven wrong and still have an audience. From Malthus himself to Ehrlich to Tucker, where will it ever end? Despite being proven wrong on all his predictions, Ehrlich still gets prime time exposure on 60 minutes. Some bad ideas never die.

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No one can accurately predict beyond five years. The next 1-3 will be rough. We had a rapid period of socioeconomic and technological change (most impact politically are social media and smart phones). This has led to an imbalance between socioeconomic base and institutions. We may be midpoint on this. There will be churn until the institutions adapt to reality. Discontent stems from those who hate change and losers and those who want faster change and are okay with flux and uncertainty. You are right to be long term optimist, but 1943-45 sucked.

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Mike...Hope you get well soon Sir!

So many memes in this writing...

"These too often repeated words have taken on a religious dimension"

Question...How does one of the smartest billionaires in the world actively campaign for a complete Charlatan/Con man? ...religious dimension? Those pesky beliefs...I like you still hold optimism on these issues...but not until we get past LF and RT Extremistan controlling the narrative....when the power gravitates back to the center...IF, then maybe we get real change.

Real policy that builds a better future by competent leaders who are more mature than a 5YO (MTG)...yea thats the level of leader in the DC clown show! We will get there as a community and teammates...no doubt in my mind...dont care bout your chosen tribe! That belief is a squirt in your brain...such a dopamine rush!

Get well soon!

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On the final graph, what is below the "death zone"? :D

Glad you were feeling well enough to write & are getting better!

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Wishing you a full and speedy recovery 🖖

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Hey Mike, keep up the awesome thought-provoking work! Do you see a possible relationship between Peter Thiel’s definite and indefinite or determinate and indeterminate optimism/pessimism and the quote “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” I feel like we’re somewhere in the good times create weak men and weak men create hard times quadrants and I’m wondering if that has a correlation to the four quadrants of optimism pessimism you brought up.

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I think there's a clear parallel.

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