Kind of off topic but arguably related to "post-Christmas reflections...", how did the Feast of the Seven Fishes turn out? Sounds deliciously awesome, but like a ton of work. On my bucket list...
I do a lot of the cooking at home because I enjoy it (cathartic) and it helps share the family chore load. You’ve highlighted one of the bizarre ironies at work in the culinary world today (which interestingly almost analogs the rise in literacy rates – many more people can read, but many more choose not to be informed) we have never been in a better position to make restaurant ready food at home – easily and quickly – with Youtube, blogs, etc. Yet SO MANY people my age (40s) and younger order food online. All the time. For most meals. Many never make anything beyond a take and bake pizza or scrambled eggs. Mercy.
The unfortunate piece about all this, besides missing out on eating great food, is what cooking at home can do to bring people together. We chat while we make dinner, and we chat while we eat dinner. The kids get to see how the sausage is made (which buys me equity for cleanup time), and the cook gets to share some love by making what their family loves to eat.
A charge for 2024: cook at home and often and involve other people in the process. An ordinary Tuesday dinner can be transformed into something so much more. Mike and everyone in the FIG community – Happy New Year!
Excellent food for thought, and, just in time for xmas!
On predicting inflation, one viewpoint not widely discussed is the pricing in the "theory of firm" and why inflation predictions based on (labor) cost increases likely will not stack up. Textbooks explain that firms have increasing marginal costs which determine the optimal price of the product. After a decade of value investing, I haven't found a firm in which marginal costs are increasing in the timeframe of the product pricing decisions (in the very long run we are all dead and all costs are variable, and, irrelevant for YoY inflation numbers). In the real-world, fixed costs are meaningful and very often more output decreases the unit costs.
This was even found by Alan Blinder (ex VC of the FED) who surveyed 200 firms corresponding for >7% US GDP and concluded "The overwhelmingly bad news here (for economic theory) is that, apparently, only 11 percent of GDP is produced under conditions of rising marginal cost." More background info in https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/profit-maximization-in-the-real-world
Great Article Mike, I was doing my own inflation research pulling data from 10 year old real restate projects, and sporting gear equipment, my anecdotal findings:
Appliances, Fridges, Dishwashers, Oven etc, for a comparable (identical in most cases) item: Prices are same or lower now than 10 years ago....
Kites for Kitesurfing: Prices for a comparable kites are SAME as 10 years ago (if we take tech advances in 10 Years) they are considerable lower....
Mountain Bikes: Same as above for similar bike characteristics components
Agree with you that lack of competition and regulation have without a doubt promoted constant prices increases over time in some industries.... health care as the most extreme example... I bet that if we lived in an hypothetically unregulated and highly competitive society, with past present and future tech advances... prices will be constantly decreasing... quality of life constantly increasing.....
“Wishing you all a very happy holidays and I’m looking forward to my traditional “after Xmas” holiday silence when I can put on my thinking cap for 2024.”
Here is a vote that your thinking is inclusive of a few holiday Spaces similar to last year.
Kind of off topic but arguably related to "post-Christmas reflections...", how did the Feast of the Seven Fishes turn out? Sounds deliciously awesome, but like a ton of work. On my bucket list...
I do a lot of the cooking at home because I enjoy it (cathartic) and it helps share the family chore load. You’ve highlighted one of the bizarre ironies at work in the culinary world today (which interestingly almost analogs the rise in literacy rates – many more people can read, but many more choose not to be informed) we have never been in a better position to make restaurant ready food at home – easily and quickly – with Youtube, blogs, etc. Yet SO MANY people my age (40s) and younger order food online. All the time. For most meals. Many never make anything beyond a take and bake pizza or scrambled eggs. Mercy.
The unfortunate piece about all this, besides missing out on eating great food, is what cooking at home can do to bring people together. We chat while we make dinner, and we chat while we eat dinner. The kids get to see how the sausage is made (which buys me equity for cleanup time), and the cook gets to share some love by making what their family loves to eat.
A charge for 2024: cook at home and often and involve other people in the process. An ordinary Tuesday dinner can be transformed into something so much more. Mike and everyone in the FIG community – Happy New Year!
Merry Christmas Mike and thanks for the LOL memes with Slim Pickens' famous scene at the end of Dr. Strangelove and Sally Field as the Flying Nun.
Excellent food for thought, and, just in time for xmas!
On predicting inflation, one viewpoint not widely discussed is the pricing in the "theory of firm" and why inflation predictions based on (labor) cost increases likely will not stack up. Textbooks explain that firms have increasing marginal costs which determine the optimal price of the product. After a decade of value investing, I haven't found a firm in which marginal costs are increasing in the timeframe of the product pricing decisions (in the very long run we are all dead and all costs are variable, and, irrelevant for YoY inflation numbers). In the real-world, fixed costs are meaningful and very often more output decreases the unit costs.
This was even found by Alan Blinder (ex VC of the FED) who surveyed 200 firms corresponding for >7% US GDP and concluded "The overwhelmingly bad news here (for economic theory) is that, apparently, only 11 percent of GDP is produced under conditions of rising marginal cost." More background info in https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/profit-maximization-in-the-real-world
Great Article Mike, I was doing my own inflation research pulling data from 10 year old real restate projects, and sporting gear equipment, my anecdotal findings:
Appliances, Fridges, Dishwashers, Oven etc, for a comparable (identical in most cases) item: Prices are same or lower now than 10 years ago....
Kites for Kitesurfing: Prices for a comparable kites are SAME as 10 years ago (if we take tech advances in 10 Years) they are considerable lower....
Mountain Bikes: Same as above for similar bike characteristics components
Agree with you that lack of competition and regulation have without a doubt promoted constant prices increases over time in some industries.... health care as the most extreme example... I bet that if we lived in an hypothetically unregulated and highly competitive society, with past present and future tech advances... prices will be constantly decreasing... quality of life constantly increasing.....
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
“Wishing you all a very happy holidays and I’m looking forward to my traditional “after Xmas” holiday silence when I can put on my thinking cap for 2024.”
Here is a vote that your thinking is inclusive of a few holiday Spaces similar to last year.