I get what he's saying, but does the actual price action support the thesis? If the biggest MCAP co's go up bc they have relatively less float per passive demand, why is it that in the selloffs, IWM always gets whacked the most...?
Because IWM (small caps) have less passive buying demand, that basket is hit harder by active degrossing.
What I'm curious about is how to estimate relatively how much more ADTV Vanguard is comprising of a given stock -- because that really could move the thesis one way or another.
Agree. Watch for events that incorporate active de-grossing and then reinvesting, e.g. the past few elections. Active manager uncertainty causes derisking, then rerisking and we see this in the relative price behavior of large vs small
Its a cabal of hubris and stupidity…Lets Define: stupidity is compatible with high educational achievement, and it is more the property of a political culture than of the individuals in it, needing to be tackled at that level.
So metrics that do not measure…Policy makers that refuse to adapt and do the right thing at all levels…Corporate America, FED, Congress, Senate, and the Presidency! Like how can you have this scale of bad executive decision making? Beliefs…pure dogma! I will say this…Have a “Reasoned View” 3MOs out….6MOs or more? It’s pure Astrology and nothing else!
Someone said it best this weekend, take out A.I and insert what you like….”Let me be blunt. Those who are afraid of AI feel deep down that they are impostors & have no edge. If you have a 1) clear mind, 2) a deep, not just cosmetic, understanding of your specialty, 3) and/or are original enough to reinvent yourself when needed, AI will be your friend. 2) Many in the responses invoked a "threat to society" by AI. That's a separate problem; but for now do not self-servingly invoke a "threat to society" when what's under threat is your little franchise and rent seeking.” —Taleb
Thanks as always for the thought provoking article. Do you get the NY Fed Supply Chain Index from FRED? If so, could you pass along the FRED code or the name of the data series you're referencing?
No, I pulled it directly from the NY Federal Reserve. I also modified the data set to express in pre-Covid terms as the post-Covid experience has pulled the overall data series higher.
Could you explain your section on the MOVE Index as if you were saying it to a golden retriever? 94%ile certainly jumps out, which is why I am curious how you are incorporating that specifically into your analysis, and if that spike also has something to do with the high yield spreads you mention later on.
Why age and retirement started matter post-pandemic? I can understand retirement, but age and age+retirement are similar, meaning that age component has much more influence. Didn't it exist pre-pandemic, and what's changed?
When you separate age and age+retirement, what you're measuring is (1) the labor force participation rate for each age versus history and (2) the retirement rate by age vs history. Retirement is not what you're actually measuring, you're measuring "early retirement"
Age in five year cohorts has shape with a big bulge post WW2 when all the GI’s came home, and declines after effective birth control measures, the birth rates shape the retirement bulges without enlightened immigration policy
Thank you. As always great. You mention the divergence in unemployment of people with or without college degree. You also discussed this on some podcasts and how it may cause an underreporting of the unemployment rate. Do you think that this may impact flows into passive investing ?
Very interesting, I feel this flight to perceived safety is imminently going to end in regret as passive only exaggerates trends - valuation remains all important. But timing these things is hard.
Don't worry about bears, it comes with the territory !
Excellent as always. What are the variables that go into your estimated "Vanguard share of AAPL daily turnover"?
Would be really interested in thinking through the assumptions here.
I get what he's saying, but does the actual price action support the thesis? If the biggest MCAP co's go up bc they have relatively less float per passive demand, why is it that in the selloffs, IWM always gets whacked the most...?
Because IWM (small caps) have less passive buying demand, that basket is hit harder by active degrossing.
What I'm curious about is how to estimate relatively how much more ADTV Vanguard is comprising of a given stock -- because that really could move the thesis one way or another.
Agree. Watch for events that incorporate active de-grossing and then reinvesting, e.g. the past few elections. Active manager uncertainty causes derisking, then rerisking and we see this in the relative price behavior of large vs small
Its a cabal of hubris and stupidity…Lets Define: stupidity is compatible with high educational achievement, and it is more the property of a political culture than of the individuals in it, needing to be tackled at that level.
So metrics that do not measure…Policy makers that refuse to adapt and do the right thing at all levels…Corporate America, FED, Congress, Senate, and the Presidency! Like how can you have this scale of bad executive decision making? Beliefs…pure dogma! I will say this…Have a “Reasoned View” 3MOs out….6MOs or more? It’s pure Astrology and nothing else!
Someone said it best this weekend, take out A.I and insert what you like….”Let me be blunt. Those who are afraid of AI feel deep down that they are impostors & have no edge. If you have a 1) clear mind, 2) a deep, not just cosmetic, understanding of your specialty, 3) and/or are original enough to reinvent yourself when needed, AI will be your friend. 2) Many in the responses invoked a "threat to society" by AI. That's a separate problem; but for now do not self-servingly invoke a "threat to society" when what's under threat is your little franchise and rent seeking.” —Taleb
Hi Mike,
Thanks as always for the thought provoking article. Do you get the NY Fed Supply Chain Index from FRED? If so, could you pass along the FRED code or the name of the data series you're referencing?
No, I pulled it directly from the NY Federal Reserve. I also modified the data set to express in pre-Covid terms as the post-Covid experience has pulled the overall data series higher.
Thank you!
Mike,
Could you explain your section on the MOVE Index as if you were saying it to a golden retriever? 94%ile certainly jumps out, which is why I am curious how you are incorporating that specifically into your analysis, and if that spike also has something to do with the high yield spreads you mention later on.
Thanks.
Thanks Michael,
Why age and retirement started matter post-pandemic? I can understand retirement, but age and age+retirement are similar, meaning that age component has much more influence. Didn't it exist pre-pandemic, and what's changed?
When you separate age and age+retirement, what you're measuring is (1) the labor force participation rate for each age versus history and (2) the retirement rate by age vs history. Retirement is not what you're actually measuring, you're measuring "early retirement"
Age in five year cohorts has shape with a big bulge post WW2 when all the GI’s came home, and declines after effective birth control measures, the birth rates shape the retirement bulges without enlightened immigration policy
Thank you. As always great. You mention the divergence in unemployment of people with or without college degree. You also discussed this on some podcasts and how it may cause an underreporting of the unemployment rate. Do you think that this may impact flows into passive investing ?
Yes, college-educated workers are far more likely to benefit from 401k-type opportunities
Thank you Interesting thoughts!
CFO disparity likely a symptom of the money illusion, as revenues have held up so far in nominal terms and profits drifting lower.....for now.
Very interesting, I feel this flight to perceived safety is imminently going to end in regret as passive only exaggerates trends - valuation remains all important. But timing these things is hard.
Don't worry about bears, it comes with the territory !