It's interesting how getting faster access to data generated alpha. Today we seem to have most of the data we want at our fingertips, and alpha is now to be found in understanding nuances to the data gathering process, and where flaws in said processes create narratives that diverge from reality.
I agree with others who see your talent. And your analysis is definitely unusually high caliber and unique. Really appreciate you.
Although some of what you say goes over my head, it’s good to reach up and stretch my mind.
As I am retired with a tiny portfolio and small amount of Social Security, I would love it if the subscription with very reasonable. But will try to pay whatever you think is fair. Thanks.
Discount for those of us who can prove we own thousands of dollars worth of Simplify products? I'm a TUA man myself.
JK, I'm happy to pay full price.
Recently David Hay announced that his Substack is going paid and he was pondering $40 a month if I remember correctly. I thought that was too much and let him know. So I guess my only thought would be, something less than $40 a month...
Thanks as always for trawling thru the weeds for us, Mike. Defo worth a sub, hopefully not too high as you clearly have many ‘simple’ products to sell... I wonder if we should also re- interpret ‘College’ level workers, since they have become such a large cohort, but without necessarily working in demanding roles?
Wait... government GDP data reporting that is affected by housing industry activity is not accurate in real time?... and that might affect government labor data reporting, too?... and that means we (and the Federal Reserve) cannot trust the government reporting of data... and that misreporting of data influences judgments about the state of the economy and the policies that ensue?... I'm shocked, shocked... (All references to the famous line from "Casablanca" aside, thank you for noting this.)
May 7, 2023·edited May 7, 2023Liked by Michael W. Green
I would love if a premium version had a video format of these updates. It is by far the better medium for your dry wit, sarcasm, and excessively long multi-clause sentences.
I enjoy reading your analyses…although I’ve usually got to reread it a few times to fully grasp it. I’m a 73 y/o retired boomer with a BS degree in business & Econ that sustained my 40 years in industrial management. When reading your work I’m trying to continue my education in areas which may help me to manage that “3rd leg” of my retirement income. I first found you on Demetri Kofinas’ “Hidden Forces” podcast where you explained the detriment that “passive investment”, ETFs, etc, (which I stopped a few years back) poses to equity market analysis. I can only commit to a $5-10/month subscription cost.
I do think a nominal amount (say $10/mo) works well to increase engagement. I pay much more attention to the substacks and podcasts (Demetri Kofinas' Hidden Forces, Grant Williams) that I subscribe and pay for
It's interesting how getting faster access to data generated alpha. Today we seem to have most of the data we want at our fingertips, and alpha is now to be found in understanding nuances to the data gathering process, and where flaws in said processes create narratives that diverge from reality.
$10 month, max. Doomberg charges $30 and for that reason I don't subcribe to his stack.
Include the newsletter with the purchase of FIG shares.
I agree with others who see your talent. And your analysis is definitely unusually high caliber and unique. Really appreciate you.
Although some of what you say goes over my head, it’s good to reach up and stretch my mind.
As I am retired with a tiny portfolio and small amount of Social Security, I would love it if the subscription with very reasonable. But will try to pay whatever you think is fair. Thanks.
If you overlay the NAHB index with the unemployment rate, with a lag, it would signal a recession by late summer. Adds to your argument.
As to paying your work is worth it. But a discount for owners of your products would be nice!
Discount for those of us who can prove we own thousands of dollars worth of Simplify products? I'm a TUA man myself.
JK, I'm happy to pay full price.
Recently David Hay announced that his Substack is going paid and he was pondering $40 a month if I remember correctly. I thought that was too much and let him know. So I guess my only thought would be, something less than $40 a month...
Hi Michael. A link to a video or article explaining your Birth/Death model for payrolls would be much appreciated. Thanks
Thank you Mike, as always very much appreciated.
300 a year seems steep to me, 10 a month is something i personally wouldn't notice, but it would generate more engagement.
Thanks as always for trawling thru the weeds for us, Mike. Defo worth a sub, hopefully not too high as you clearly have many ‘simple’ products to sell... I wonder if we should also re- interpret ‘College’ level workers, since they have become such a large cohort, but without necessarily working in demanding roles?
Great piece, would subscribe to a paid version. How do you calculate net new job openings?
Wait... government GDP data reporting that is affected by housing industry activity is not accurate in real time?... and that might affect government labor data reporting, too?... and that means we (and the Federal Reserve) cannot trust the government reporting of data... and that misreporting of data influences judgments about the state of the economy and the policies that ensue?... I'm shocked, shocked... (All references to the famous line from "Casablanca" aside, thank you for noting this.)
This was another really good and useful piece.
I would love if a premium version had a video format of these updates. It is by far the better medium for your dry wit, sarcasm, and excessively long multi-clause sentences.
Love your articles. Your perspective is truly unique, I hope to keep it when you switch to paid. I sent an email, though I bet that box is flooded.
I enjoy reading your analyses…although I’ve usually got to reread it a few times to fully grasp it. I’m a 73 y/o retired boomer with a BS degree in business & Econ that sustained my 40 years in industrial management. When reading your work I’m trying to continue my education in areas which may help me to manage that “3rd leg” of my retirement income. I first found you on Demetri Kofinas’ “Hidden Forces” podcast where you explained the detriment that “passive investment”, ETFs, etc, (which I stopped a few years back) poses to equity market analysis. I can only commit to a $5-10/month subscription cost.
I do think a nominal amount (say $10/mo) works well to increase engagement. I pay much more attention to the substacks and podcasts (Demetri Kofinas' Hidden Forces, Grant Williams) that I subscribe and pay for