I'm 100 percent confident that incubi and succubi variances are the underlying reasons for the Apple/Microsoft patterns. The unholy spawn now roaming the tech space is what we must worry about now.
Anything that shows mechanics to support the top level obvious that passive is a herd that'll drive itself over an underperformance cliff is good by me.
Underperformance vs real returns of course. Not the index they track. Which is classic buck passing.
APPL vs. MSFT relationship a partial product of thematic ETFs and momentum (which you talked about)? For example, both companies compose approximately 48% of XLK. Attributable to the machine chasing specific factor exposures?
I was intrigued, so got the data from 1986-1995 from Yahoo Finance. It seems to show the MSFT heyday for overnight gains during that period, versus a more subdued AAPL.
wow that diff between AAPL and MSFT is so intriguing. Just a very small thought....I wonder if the timing of their press releases for important business news is simply the reverse of each other or something along those lines.
Stop being mystified - the public markets are a casino, full of front running, algos and manipulation and yes passive sheeple strategies. I’d be more surprised if vol made sense to the business actually involved. ….get out while you cna unless you are Professional trading this stuff Daily .
Sorry for a lay person question but here goes. Bear market patterns kind of sort of seem to go like this; crowd into fewer and fewer blue chips (ex. Nifty fifty, now Apple, Msft). Bear rallies that suck more in and eventually capitulation. The passive dynamic is the only new thing I see and it increases volatility and I remember Mike speaking of models where the market drops to zero. Does passive change the pattern enough yet or is this bear going to play out like the others? Re-reading Anatomy of the bear now. What impact passive which is not discussed?
Is anything else revealed by the overnight/intraday returns of all other S&P500 constituents? Is there any regression against flow data from ICI etc that explains the "switching" of regimes?
Do you really think they'll throw Daly under the bus? she ticks so many of the woke boxes it would seem nearly impossible
Thanks. Appreciate your dive into these topics. Keep up the great work.
I'm 100 percent confident that incubi and succubi variances are the underlying reasons for the Apple/Microsoft patterns. The unholy spawn now roaming the tech space is what we must worry about now.
Superb Mike.
Anything that shows mechanics to support the top level obvious that passive is a herd that'll drive itself over an underperformance cliff is good by me.
Underperformance vs real returns of course. Not the index they track. Which is classic buck passing.
APPL vs. MSFT relationship a partial product of thematic ETFs and momentum (which you talked about)? For example, both companies compose approximately 48% of XLK. Attributable to the machine chasing specific factor exposures?
I was intrigued, so got the data from 1986-1995 from Yahoo Finance. It seems to show the MSFT heyday for overnight gains during that period, versus a more subdued AAPL.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1271l1r66NvW1hqHiJwTb5RVHx2O6bEQw/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=100500843992388011644&rtpof=true&sd=true (note there might be a small lag in the chart loading) The Excel charts don't come out exactly the same in Google docs. The blue shows overnight, orange intraday. The time series for the chart runs from April 1, 1986 - March 30, 1995, but the full data until present day is included in the raw data columns.
wow that diff between AAPL and MSFT is so intriguing. Just a very small thought....I wonder if the timing of their press releases for important business news is simply the reverse of each other or something along those lines.
Stop being mystified - the public markets are a casino, full of front running, algos and manipulation and yes passive sheeple strategies. I’d be more surprised if vol made sense to the business actually involved. ….get out while you cna unless you are Professional trading this stuff Daily .
Sorry for a lay person question but here goes. Bear market patterns kind of sort of seem to go like this; crowd into fewer and fewer blue chips (ex. Nifty fifty, now Apple, Msft). Bear rallies that suck more in and eventually capitulation. The passive dynamic is the only new thing I see and it increases volatility and I remember Mike speaking of models where the market drops to zero. Does passive change the pattern enough yet or is this bear going to play out like the others? Re-reading Anatomy of the bear now. What impact passive which is not discussed?
Is anything else revealed by the overnight/intraday returns of all other S&P500 constituents? Is there any regression against flow data from ICI etc that explains the "switching" of regimes?