Oil's Well That Ends Wells

143 Substack Posts Returns to the Beginning

This is going to be a shorter note. After hosting the Simplify ETF Conference (https://enteringthefall.simplify.us/), and traveling for nearly four weeks straight, I am wiped out. But there is something worth emphasizing, so we write.

YIGAF was born on Jan 1, 2023 with a shot across the bow. One of the world’s greatest oil traders had identified an opportunity:

Now I emphasized that there was no one linear trend in oil demand; instead, there were a minimum of three:

And as a result, I believed Andurand’s forecasts for demand were misplaced:

“This would suggest we are permanently below the oil demand trend that Pierre highlights, and, in fact, we are rapidly approaching peak oil demand. Using this approach, we’ll hit 101MM barrels in 2025, not 2023, and absolute demand peaks around 2035 at only 106MM barrels per day. Interestingly, these levels are above IEA forecasts but well below the levels implied by Pierre’s linear trend.” — YIGAF Jan 2023

Recent forecasts suggest that this skepticism was correct. While we are modestly above 101MM barrels per day as of 2025, the Energy Institute (formerly BP Statistical Review) has reconfirmed that global oil demand is likely near permanent peaks in the 105-106MM range slightly earlier than the YIGAF forecasts.

With global population forecasts being actively revised lower, this suggests that the oil story in human history has likely reached its peak.

Far from the much higher oil forecasts that Andurand had expected, we have seen oil prices trend lower from Jan 2023:

A rare win for the home team. So let’s try to screw it up…