Just the Markets

After three weeks of socioeconomic commentary, let's take a quick look

Thank you for supporting the work I’ve been doing on socioeconomic issues. While it’s been illuminating, it’s also disenheartening to realize the depth of the challenges ahead. We lucked out with Roosevelt the Refinancer; got slammed with Roosevelt the manager. This time around, we seem to have neither on the domestic front even as statecraft seems to have largely followed my outline. On the domestic front, my hunch is that all we can do is educate and hope. On the geopolitical front, while you may detest the man, you must admit that the world is a radically changed place for purveyors of narcotics and terror.

I sometimes remind people that the right mental model for Xi and Putin is Tony Soprano — not particularly bright, but devastatingly ruthless. In my early advisory work for the US military, I often emphasized, “We should not become China to defeat China.” Unfortunately, I think we have made significant strides on both fronts. I’ll take the good (geopolitics), and hopefully, we still have a chance against the crime families.

The US is on the verge of “running the geopolitical table” to use a straight pool term. Control of the Western Hemisphere is within reach, geopolitical chokepoints are increasingly closed to China, strategic sourcing is increasingly solved with TSMC and Mountain Pass now both operational on US soil (do not confuse military strategic sourcing with “no concerns on the consumer/industrial front”). Drones deployed in the Iranian attack are the 21st-century equivalent of the WW2 Liberty ships — not invented here, but cheap as chips to deploy.

While I’ve been privileged to have the opportunity to help “solve” the problems of America, I’ve been making incredible progress on my work on passive — theory, book, speaking, understanding, and implementation. Many of you may have noticed a change in my tone in recent discussions. It matters, so let’s discuss.